RISE OF THE BEAR
In the days of 'proxy war' or famous as 'cold war' ,eagle had taunted and obviated the bear in the open grasslands, deserts and highlands, far away from the latter's habitat -the frozen lakes.Riding on the unprecedented complete annihilation, the latter even drove the bear near the outskirts of the frozen lakes. Now, it has reached the Bear's abode. Even with all over assaults, the bear has shown mettle, of late.It shall stand its ground this time.Stand and deflect the onslaught of forces.The Bear has looked otherwise, enough.
Nope, this is not panchatantra, children story. This is about the greatest wars fought.Not battlefield, bloody campaigns.But behind the wall, secret manoeuvres, back channel diplomatic war.The eagle mentioned is referred to The USA and bear is synonymous to Russia.
There’s an old Jewish saying: “A good time to keep your mouth shut is when you’re in deep trouble.” President Barack Obama and his foreign policy advisers would have profited if they had been aware of this.Instead,keeping the upcoming elections in mind, the president went ahead with a 90-minute phone conversation on March 1, 2014 with President Vladimir Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine.Seriously!Reasoning with Putin.He is the new age Stalin. Already, events had rapidly escalated with the Russian invasion of Crimea, in the wake of the regional Crimean government asking for Russian military assistance to restore order in the area.Many have drawn this as comparison to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovokia before WW2, citing 'Ethnic German protection'.However unsettling, Russia's actions are not irrational. Nor are they akin to Hitler's march through Europe. In fact, from a diplomatic history perspective, Russia's conduct is understandable.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/10674252/Market-report-Russian-bear-frightens-the-bulls.html
Obama expressed “his deep concern” over Russian actions, which he held were a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity and thus a breach of international law.How can any country, much less Russia buy that crap from USA that deems itself above all sovereignty and laws.Pretty contradictory.He also said there will be a price to be paid for Russian military intervention in Ukraine.It was not clear what that “cost” would be, nor who would be responsible for it.
Even after being a subject of parody and derision, Sarah Palin had predicted in 2008 that Putin would invade Ukraine if Obama was elected“After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next,” said Palin.Of course, journalists had thrashed it as 'far-fetched' and 'naive' ,leading to the contentious alteration of Tina Fey's remark.Mitt Romney had warned on the campaign trail that Putin couldn’t be trusted.Obama candidly mocked his Republican foe for rekindling the Cold War. The president infamously told a top Russian leader in 2012 that he would have “more flexibility” on missile defence after the presidential election. Moscow licked its chops.
Certainly there are complex issues of international law involved, as well as the real meaningful political ones. Ukraine is not a member of NATO nor EU, but some agreements have been made to help protect its sovereignty.On the other hand the ever charismatic Putin has termed the ouster of left-leaning Ukrainian president an 'engineered unconstitutional coup.'
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/nato-websites-hit-in-cyber-attack-linked-to-crimea-tension_918402.html
For example, the U.S. media and cable networks, which have been pouring out information on the Ukraine and Russian intervention there, will not appreciate the remarks of Samantha Power, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She concluded that sending international observers from the U.N. or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe was the best way to get the facts, monitor conduct, and prevent any abuses.But just as usual, the 'western media' seems to be showing only one side of the coin-The dissent from western Ukraine.The eastern part - dominated by ethnic Russians is completely forgotten and local reports being conjurred up.Pro-Russian demonstrations being played down while Pro-Euro ones are blown out of proportion in escalating the situation.The Russian news groups, though less influential have tried their best in making the world realise the effects of 'poking the bear'.Ground realities seem more genuine.The fact that the present government authorities have personalities who are vividly recognisable as Anti-Russian is a testament to European countries 'pushover' in the region.
After thirteen years in office, that power of Putin is now evident, externally as well as internally, in Russia.He is currently ranked as the world's most powerful person according to Forbes. After 16 years as a member of the KGB(Remember the famous photo of Putin in the backdrop of US President, spying), as a lieutenant colonel in East Germany, Putin was accustomed to the use of power. Internally, he has controlled public opinion and political life.Jailing of billionaires and other detractors, giving him 'a run for money', citing 'Anti-Russian' activities. Although, extreme, there is not much new in his actions even in this age.It is but, a Russian version of right-wing politics.With the law in September 2011 having changed the presidential term from 4 to 6 years, one can expect Putin, elected in 2012 after being president and then prime minister since 2000, to serve two six-year terms and to be in office until 2024. He is accompanied by a strong group of advisers, many coming from those he employed at the KGB.Folks such as Dmitry Medvedev is a result of tandemocracy.
Once Vladimir Putin became president, Russia has roared back to life from the ruins of cold war.The Russian economy started to 'blossom'.In 2007, under his leadership,Russia’s GDP exceeded that of 1990, meaning it has overcome the devastating consequences of the recession in the 1990s..Today, Russia is an economic powerhouse that is blessed with an abundance of natural resources.Russia supplies 34 percent of Europe’s natural gas needs.Their debt to GDP ratio is extremely small, they actually run a trade surplus every year, and they have the second most powerful military on the entire planet. Anyone that underestimates Russia at this point is making a huge mistake. The Russian Bear is out of it's cage, and today it is a more formidable adversary than it ever was at any point during the Cold War.More economic data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia
On the world stage, Putin has moved from being a junior partner with the U.S. in 2000 to one of near equality, in spite of the differences in economic resources, military strength, and population of the two countries.His assertive stances, divergent from those of Obama, have been displayed in a variety of issues -- Libya, Syria, Iran, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, and on anti-missile defence. His arrogance was shown when he kept Kerry waiting for three hours in the Kremlin, and when he took his Labrador dog to his first meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was bitten by a dog when she was a child.
Putin has made no secret that his objective, while not to restore the Soviet Union, is to create a kind of Euro-Asian Union that can counter both the EU and NATO.
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The problem now is whether he can act unilaterally.Obama will clearly never respond with military force, and NATO is unlikely to do so either.Mere economic sanctions and blockade are just 'paper measures', as they shall render 'ineffective', as pointed out by a Russian official.There are constant reports of street gangs and resulting protests cum clashes from both sides of Ukraine.Media keep pointing towards the staunch Pro-Russian 'bike gang' prowling the streets, creating anarchy.But the reality is that they are merely keeping vigil, steaming from their distrust of the 'fake government'.It is not false that the western powers too, experts in lobbying and 'media warfare' are embarking on paths destined to tilt majority of people in their favour.In this tug of war between extremely powerful sides, Ukraine is the 'sag point'. Many historians have even described the current affairs as 'The New Great Game'. The grand endeavouring, macho and adventurous life style Putin has built around himself is a sneak-peek into his foreign policy. His rowdy-like childhood is also a something moulding judgements. More than the rise in living standards, it is the wave of nationalism, Putin holds out that tilts the opinion polls towards him. His rise to power is something of a miracle.
The age of pragmatism is here, whether we like it or not. The old equations, based on cold war and non-alignment no longer hold good. The staple rhetoric that was for so long dished out also belongs to the bipolar of yesterday. But contrary to much of what is being said and written, it is a multipolar rather unipolar world that appears to be emerging out of recent events.
The Sochi Games and it's mascot issue, was a clear indication that they are, in a sense, on a warpath, trying to prove it to the whole world that Russia is a strong and developed nation.Although the 'western journos' went bombastic claiming the winter Olympics to be a 'disaster' ,the enormous spending spree, location and the games itself was blistering and marvellous.It is expected from these journalists to find miniature 'cracks' in their 'age old enemy'.
Wrangling over a patch of land with a population of about 2 million may seem to have little importance. As the Russian bear awakens, however, historic interests and memories revive.Just as the ancient Crimean city of Sevastopol is so important as Russia’s major naval base on the Black Sea, so Vladivostok is Russia’s opening to the Pacific.The Russians acquired the region from the Chinese only 150 years ago as a spoil of the opium wars, and established a major port where once there had been a minor outpost.Now the Chinese are invading by crossing the border and going into business where Russian power appears spasmodic.The Russian show of force in Crimea is a lesson for South Korea as well. Seoul also has reason to worry as the U.S. pulls back its forces.
The first African-American President of USA lacks no toughness, as pointed out by his critics including his Republican counterparts.He has always stood up, stretching his neck out in warring times-be it issues such as terrorism, Pakistan, Korea,South China, Saudi Arabia or Iran.But unlike many of his predecessors he realises the folly in contradicting USA's own actions.He is best described as a 'realist committed to principles'.The hardliners obviously do not get the description.His recent subtleties is the combination of perilous foreign policy - Afghanistan, Egypt, Syria, India and domestic problems.Obama had asked Russia to return NSA leaker Edward Snowden. Moscow is still chuckling.For they realise that they are breaching no laws.United Kingdom had granted,amidst protest from Moscow, political asylum to Putin's former patron, oligarch Boris Berezovsky in 2003.This deterioration was intensified by allegations that the British were spying and making secret payments to pro-democracy and human rights groups. The Republicans seem to forget that their recent President George Bush had himself bowed to Moscow's aggressions while describing it as "looking deep into Putin's eyes and seeing the soul" It was provocative enough for the West to expand NATO to Poland and the Baltic states in the 1990s. It is even more provocative to try to push NATO to Russia's next door.Especially with India, China and Japan - Asian superpowers backing the Russians. Putin has followed the policy of Eurasian integration.
http://www.dw.de/polands-fear-of-the-russian-bear/a-17472541
"However unsettling, Russia's actions are not irrational. In many ways they are the foreseeable reaction to the West's decisions since the collapse of the Soviet Empire", writes Tom Switzer.In a refreshing article he write - 'For Russia, unlike the US, there is a vital issue at stake in Ukraine. Leave aside deep historical ties between the two countries. Ethnic Russians number nearly 60 per cent of the population in Crimea. Russia's naval base for the Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol, Crimea. And Ukraine is a next-door neighbour that is a conduit for Russian trade.Some western pundits on left and right insist that Russia lost the Cold War, so it should simply get over its loss. Yet it is the US and NATO themselves that have been unable to leave the Cold War behind. By expanding NATO eastwards, deploying American missiles into Eastern Europe, interfering in the internal affairs in Russia's near abroad, Washington and Brussels have treated Russia as a potential threat and failed to understand how those decisions look from Moscow's perspective. Imagine how Washington would respond if another great power extended its military alliance to Central America or interfered in the internal affairs of northern Mexico'.
"What American foreign policy needs is not a return to a narrow and cynical realism, but rather the formulation of a 'realistic Wilsonianism' that better matches means to ends." Fukuyama, famous author of the controversial yet insightful book - The End of History and the Last Man, had echoed in the wake of Iraq crisis.But realising his folly,he later distanced himself from the neoconservative agenda.He retracted from his earlier statement of "What is needed now are new ideas, neither neoconservative nor realist, for how America is to relate to the rest of the world – ideas that retain the neoconservative belief in the universality of human rights, but without its illusions about the efficacy of American power and hegemony to bring these ends about." to "Neoconservatives believe that history can be pushed along with the right application of power and will. Leninism was a tragedy in its Bolshevik version, and it has returned as farce when practised by the United States. Neoconservatism, as both a political symbol and a body of thought, has evolved into something I can no longer support." From being one among forty co-signers of William Kristol's letter to President George W. Bush after the September 11, 2001 attacks he later embarked on Anti-Bush campaign.Fukuyama even endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 US presidential election.
Obama understands the implications, as seen last year.Russia had a clear mandate in the incursion of Georgia in August 2008. By clashing with South Ossetia, the emotion-charged Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, gave the Russians an excuse to meddle in its former constituent republic on its critical southern frontier.USA themself are accused of their double-standards.In the wake, of a 'commie' Cuba at it's neck, USA's approach was exactly opposite to their claims.If not for Russia's staunch backing, Cuba would have been thrown into chaos and coup, orchesterd by CIA, just as other African nations at that time.The idealistic Kennedy fell for his hard line Army honchos and gave a green signal to the horrendous Bay of Pigs invasion.On the other hand, his handling of the Cuban missile crisis, albeit his generals was a triumph not just to the US, but even to humanity.
Pretending Democratic is not similar to democracy.The undergoing referendum;as in the case of Scotland or Falkan Islands, is largely seen as a solution to 'break the ice'.Although this might be a better alternative than a push-pull cold war, or worse an all out escalating war, it is a half-baked one, nonetheless. Legitimacy is important when there is a question of minority security.Left to it, the country might be on the verge of persecution of minorities or yet worse, breakdown of country.The whole point of democracy is listening to both sides of conversation and then reaching out to both the sides, not just the majority.India is a classic example in this aspect.Furthermore, isolation from Russia is not an option for Ukraine.The much sought out EU integration is not a 'soothing balm'.Europe itself is clinging hard to hold up to it's standards.It is a mix of warring states.The recent Greek crisis provided a peeking window to the crumbling structure.One might argue that nonetheless Western European countries fare way ahead than their Eastern counterparts.True, but mere making use of empirical data whenever it seems to suit its message, while appealing to an ideal whenever the empirical data contradicts it, is contradictory in itself. Russia has long back announced a whooping, massive bail-out package to Ukraine. This 'leap of faith' is unlikely from EU. But the lingering question remains about self-authority and sovereignty of Ukraine.
The Russian bear is definitely waking up after a long period of hibernation.
After - Note :- The referendum to break Crimea away from Ukraine and make it a part of Russia reportedly passed overwhelmingly although the U.S. and other Western nations have rejected the legitimacy of the vote, vowing to "punish" Russia for their actions.But the defience is expectent to meet a 'snot'.Russian television showed images of ethnic Russians in Crimea dancing, singing and celebrating the referendum but followed them with accusations that Kiev's new authorities and the West have allowed ultra-nationalists to attack Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine.The Reuters reported that 'Such remarks have caused concern in Kiev that Moscow might send troops to eastern Ukraine, acting on a vote in Russian parliament allowing him to use the armed forces if compatriots are deemed in need of protection in Ukraine.'
While reacting to accusations of 'fraud' in the refferundum process, Putin aptly pointed out that 'In history, no other annexation has been without firing a single shot'. Although it is not entirely correct, in both regards. Woefully, Hitler had annexed Austria with just the display of military prowess and diplomatic charisma.So had Great Britain and other imperial powers."I have conquered the West without firing a single shot" Henry Willard said, after gaining monopoly of Pacific Railroad, stressing that weapons though paramount; aint a necessity in conquest. History is prime evidence that suggests that trade and culture influenced empire creation.Give me two generations, and I will take a country without firing a single shot." Vladmir Lenin, Communist leader of the Russian Revolution had boasted on similar lines.
Note :- An interesting analysis of Crimea through Game Theory by NYT http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/business/crimea-through-a-game-theory-lens.html?_r=1
In the days of 'proxy war' or famous as 'cold war' ,eagle had taunted and obviated the bear in the open grasslands, deserts and highlands, far away from the latter's habitat -the frozen lakes.Riding on the unprecedented complete annihilation, the latter even drove the bear near the outskirts of the frozen lakes. Now, it has reached the Bear's abode. Even with all over assaults, the bear has shown mettle, of late.It shall stand its ground this time.Stand and deflect the onslaught of forces.The Bear has looked otherwise, enough.
Nope, this is not panchatantra, children story. This is about the greatest wars fought.Not battlefield, bloody campaigns.But behind the wall, secret manoeuvres, back channel diplomatic war.The eagle mentioned is referred to The USA and bear is synonymous to Russia.
There’s an old Jewish saying: “A good time to keep your mouth shut is when you’re in deep trouble.” President Barack Obama and his foreign policy advisers would have profited if they had been aware of this.Instead,keeping the upcoming elections in mind, the president went ahead with a 90-minute phone conversation on March 1, 2014 with President Vladimir Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine.Seriously!Reasoning with Putin.He is the new age Stalin. Already, events had rapidly escalated with the Russian invasion of Crimea, in the wake of the regional Crimean government asking for Russian military assistance to restore order in the area.Many have drawn this as comparison to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovokia before WW2, citing 'Ethnic German protection'.However unsettling, Russia's actions are not irrational. Nor are they akin to Hitler's march through Europe. In fact, from a diplomatic history perspective, Russia's conduct is understandable.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/10674252/Market-report-Russian-bear-frightens-the-bulls.html
Obama expressed “his deep concern” over Russian actions, which he held were a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity and thus a breach of international law.How can any country, much less Russia buy that crap from USA that deems itself above all sovereignty and laws.Pretty contradictory.He also said there will be a price to be paid for Russian military intervention in Ukraine.It was not clear what that “cost” would be, nor who would be responsible for it.
Even after being a subject of parody and derision, Sarah Palin had predicted in 2008 that Putin would invade Ukraine if Obama was elected“After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next,” said Palin.Of course, journalists had thrashed it as 'far-fetched' and 'naive' ,leading to the contentious alteration of Tina Fey's remark.Mitt Romney had warned on the campaign trail that Putin couldn’t be trusted.Obama candidly mocked his Republican foe for rekindling the Cold War. The president infamously told a top Russian leader in 2012 that he would have “more flexibility” on missile defence after the presidential election. Moscow licked its chops.
Certainly there are complex issues of international law involved, as well as the real meaningful political ones. Ukraine is not a member of NATO nor EU, but some agreements have been made to help protect its sovereignty.On the other hand the ever charismatic Putin has termed the ouster of left-leaning Ukrainian president an 'engineered unconstitutional coup.'
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/nato-websites-hit-in-cyber-attack-linked-to-crimea-tension_918402.html
For example, the U.S. media and cable networks, which have been pouring out information on the Ukraine and Russian intervention there, will not appreciate the remarks of Samantha Power, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She concluded that sending international observers from the U.N. or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe was the best way to get the facts, monitor conduct, and prevent any abuses.But just as usual, the 'western media' seems to be showing only one side of the coin-The dissent from western Ukraine.The eastern part - dominated by ethnic Russians is completely forgotten and local reports being conjurred up.Pro-Russian demonstrations being played down while Pro-Euro ones are blown out of proportion in escalating the situation.The Russian news groups, though less influential have tried their best in making the world realise the effects of 'poking the bear'.Ground realities seem more genuine.The fact that the present government authorities have personalities who are vividly recognisable as Anti-Russian is a testament to European countries 'pushover' in the region.
After thirteen years in office, that power of Putin is now evident, externally as well as internally, in Russia.He is currently ranked as the world's most powerful person according to Forbes. After 16 years as a member of the KGB(Remember the famous photo of Putin in the backdrop of US President, spying), as a lieutenant colonel in East Germany, Putin was accustomed to the use of power. Internally, he has controlled public opinion and political life.Jailing of billionaires and other detractors, giving him 'a run for money', citing 'Anti-Russian' activities. Although, extreme, there is not much new in his actions even in this age.It is but, a Russian version of right-wing politics.With the law in September 2011 having changed the presidential term from 4 to 6 years, one can expect Putin, elected in 2012 after being president and then prime minister since 2000, to serve two six-year terms and to be in office until 2024. He is accompanied by a strong group of advisers, many coming from those he employed at the KGB.Folks such as Dmitry Medvedev is a result of tandemocracy.
Once Vladimir Putin became president, Russia has roared back to life from the ruins of cold war.The Russian economy started to 'blossom'.In 2007, under his leadership,Russia’s GDP exceeded that of 1990, meaning it has overcome the devastating consequences of the recession in the 1990s..Today, Russia is an economic powerhouse that is blessed with an abundance of natural resources.Russia supplies 34 percent of Europe’s natural gas needs.Their debt to GDP ratio is extremely small, they actually run a trade surplus every year, and they have the second most powerful military on the entire planet. Anyone that underestimates Russia at this point is making a huge mistake. The Russian Bear is out of it's cage, and today it is a more formidable adversary than it ever was at any point during the Cold War.More economic data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia
On the world stage, Putin has moved from being a junior partner with the U.S. in 2000 to one of near equality, in spite of the differences in economic resources, military strength, and population of the two countries.His assertive stances, divergent from those of Obama, have been displayed in a variety of issues -- Libya, Syria, Iran, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, and on anti-missile defence. His arrogance was shown when he kept Kerry waiting for three hours in the Kremlin, and when he took his Labrador dog to his first meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was bitten by a dog when she was a child.
Putin has made no secret that his objective, while not to restore the Soviet Union, is to create a kind of Euro-Asian Union that can counter both the EU and NATO.
The problem now is whether he can act unilaterally.Obama will clearly never respond with military force, and NATO is unlikely to do so either.Mere economic sanctions and blockade are just 'paper measures', as they shall render 'ineffective', as pointed out by a Russian official.There are constant reports of street gangs and resulting protests cum clashes from both sides of Ukraine.Media keep pointing towards the staunch Pro-Russian 'bike gang' prowling the streets, creating anarchy.But the reality is that they are merely keeping vigil, steaming from their distrust of the 'fake government'.It is not false that the western powers too, experts in lobbying and 'media warfare' are embarking on paths destined to tilt majority of people in their favour.In this tug of war between extremely powerful sides, Ukraine is the 'sag point'. Many historians have even described the current affairs as 'The New Great Game'. The grand endeavouring, macho and adventurous life style Putin has built around himself is a sneak-peek into his foreign policy. His rowdy-like childhood is also a something moulding judgements. More than the rise in living standards, it is the wave of nationalism, Putin holds out that tilts the opinion polls towards him. His rise to power is something of a miracle.
The age of pragmatism is here, whether we like it or not. The old equations, based on cold war and non-alignment no longer hold good. The staple rhetoric that was for so long dished out also belongs to the bipolar of yesterday. But contrary to much of what is being said and written, it is a multipolar rather unipolar world that appears to be emerging out of recent events.
Central Asia has always been key to Russia's existence in the superpower realm.It had acted as pivot in catapulting "Marxist ideals" back in the early years of cold war, into Africa as well as Asia. Afghanistan has always been in the binoculars of Russian premiers in accomplishing their grand scheme of things.As George Kennan described in his long telegram in 1946, the traditional way a Russian leader plays a weak hand is to shore up internal support through the creation of an external enemy. If so, then Putin is unlikely to stop at Crimea.As Russia continues to deteriorate, he will have a never ending need for foreign dragons to slay.A series of the so-called colour revolutions in the post-Soviet states nas been criticised by Putin as "If you have permanent revolutions you risk plunging the post-Soviet space into endless conflict". Looking back into time, there are numerous instances where Eastern European nations have tried poking the bear, only to receive a "slap".For instance for example when a January 2009 gas dispute with Ukraine led state-controlled Russian company Gazprom to halt its deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine, which left a number of European states, to which Ukraine transits Russian gas, to have serious shortages of natural gas.
The Sochi Games and it's mascot issue, was a clear indication that they are, in a sense, on a warpath, trying to prove it to the whole world that Russia is a strong and developed nation.Although the 'western journos' went bombastic claiming the winter Olympics to be a 'disaster' ,the enormous spending spree, location and the games itself was blistering and marvellous.It is expected from these journalists to find miniature 'cracks' in their 'age old enemy'.
Wrangling over a patch of land with a population of about 2 million may seem to have little importance. As the Russian bear awakens, however, historic interests and memories revive.Just as the ancient Crimean city of Sevastopol is so important as Russia’s major naval base on the Black Sea, so Vladivostok is Russia’s opening to the Pacific.The Russians acquired the region from the Chinese only 150 years ago as a spoil of the opium wars, and established a major port where once there had been a minor outpost.Now the Chinese are invading by crossing the border and going into business where Russian power appears spasmodic.The Russian show of force in Crimea is a lesson for South Korea as well. Seoul also has reason to worry as the U.S. pulls back its forces.
The first African-American President of USA lacks no toughness, as pointed out by his critics including his Republican counterparts.He has always stood up, stretching his neck out in warring times-be it issues such as terrorism, Pakistan, Korea,South China, Saudi Arabia or Iran.But unlike many of his predecessors he realises the folly in contradicting USA's own actions.He is best described as a 'realist committed to principles'.The hardliners obviously do not get the description.His recent subtleties is the combination of perilous foreign policy - Afghanistan, Egypt, Syria, India and domestic problems.Obama had asked Russia to return NSA leaker Edward Snowden. Moscow is still chuckling.For they realise that they are breaching no laws.United Kingdom had granted,amidst protest from Moscow, political asylum to Putin's former patron, oligarch Boris Berezovsky in 2003.This deterioration was intensified by allegations that the British were spying and making secret payments to pro-democracy and human rights groups. The Republicans seem to forget that their recent President George Bush had himself bowed to Moscow's aggressions while describing it as "looking deep into Putin's eyes and seeing the soul" It was provocative enough for the West to expand NATO to Poland and the Baltic states in the 1990s. It is even more provocative to try to push NATO to Russia's next door.Especially with India, China and Japan - Asian superpowers backing the Russians. Putin has followed the policy of Eurasian integration.
http://www.dw.de/polands-fear-of-the-russian-bear/a-17472541
"However unsettling, Russia's actions are not irrational. In many ways they are the foreseeable reaction to the West's decisions since the collapse of the Soviet Empire", writes Tom Switzer.In a refreshing article he write - 'For Russia, unlike the US, there is a vital issue at stake in Ukraine. Leave aside deep historical ties between the two countries. Ethnic Russians number nearly 60 per cent of the population in Crimea. Russia's naval base for the Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol, Crimea. And Ukraine is a next-door neighbour that is a conduit for Russian trade.Some western pundits on left and right insist that Russia lost the Cold War, so it should simply get over its loss. Yet it is the US and NATO themselves that have been unable to leave the Cold War behind. By expanding NATO eastwards, deploying American missiles into Eastern Europe, interfering in the internal affairs in Russia's near abroad, Washington and Brussels have treated Russia as a potential threat and failed to understand how those decisions look from Moscow's perspective. Imagine how Washington would respond if another great power extended its military alliance to Central America or interfered in the internal affairs of northern Mexico'.
"What American foreign policy needs is not a return to a narrow and cynical realism, but rather the formulation of a 'realistic Wilsonianism' that better matches means to ends." Fukuyama, famous author of the controversial yet insightful book - The End of History and the Last Man, had echoed in the wake of Iraq crisis.But realising his folly,he later distanced himself from the neoconservative agenda.He retracted from his earlier statement of "What is needed now are new ideas, neither neoconservative nor realist, for how America is to relate to the rest of the world – ideas that retain the neoconservative belief in the universality of human rights, but without its illusions about the efficacy of American power and hegemony to bring these ends about." to "Neoconservatives believe that history can be pushed along with the right application of power and will. Leninism was a tragedy in its Bolshevik version, and it has returned as farce when practised by the United States. Neoconservatism, as both a political symbol and a body of thought, has evolved into something I can no longer support." From being one among forty co-signers of William Kristol's letter to President George W. Bush after the September 11, 2001 attacks he later embarked on Anti-Bush campaign.Fukuyama even endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 US presidential election.
Obama understands the implications, as seen last year.Russia had a clear mandate in the incursion of Georgia in August 2008. By clashing with South Ossetia, the emotion-charged Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, gave the Russians an excuse to meddle in its former constituent republic on its critical southern frontier.USA themself are accused of their double-standards.In the wake, of a 'commie' Cuba at it's neck, USA's approach was exactly opposite to their claims.If not for Russia's staunch backing, Cuba would have been thrown into chaos and coup, orchesterd by CIA, just as other African nations at that time.The idealistic Kennedy fell for his hard line Army honchos and gave a green signal to the horrendous Bay of Pigs invasion.On the other hand, his handling of the Cuban missile crisis, albeit his generals was a triumph not just to the US, but even to humanity.
Pretending Democratic is not similar to democracy.The undergoing referendum;as in the case of Scotland or Falkan Islands, is largely seen as a solution to 'break the ice'.Although this might be a better alternative than a push-pull cold war, or worse an all out escalating war, it is a half-baked one, nonetheless. Legitimacy is important when there is a question of minority security.Left to it, the country might be on the verge of persecution of minorities or yet worse, breakdown of country.The whole point of democracy is listening to both sides of conversation and then reaching out to both the sides, not just the majority.India is a classic example in this aspect.Furthermore, isolation from Russia is not an option for Ukraine.The much sought out EU integration is not a 'soothing balm'.Europe itself is clinging hard to hold up to it's standards.It is a mix of warring states.The recent Greek crisis provided a peeking window to the crumbling structure.One might argue that nonetheless Western European countries fare way ahead than their Eastern counterparts.True, but mere making use of empirical data whenever it seems to suit its message, while appealing to an ideal whenever the empirical data contradicts it, is contradictory in itself. Russia has long back announced a whooping, massive bail-out package to Ukraine. This 'leap of faith' is unlikely from EU. But the lingering question remains about self-authority and sovereignty of Ukraine.
The Russian bear is definitely waking up after a long period of hibernation.
After - Note :- The referendum to break Crimea away from Ukraine and make it a part of Russia reportedly passed overwhelmingly although the U.S. and other Western nations have rejected the legitimacy of the vote, vowing to "punish" Russia for their actions.But the defience is expectent to meet a 'snot'.Russian television showed images of ethnic Russians in Crimea dancing, singing and celebrating the referendum but followed them with accusations that Kiev's new authorities and the West have allowed ultra-nationalists to attack Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine.The Reuters reported that 'Such remarks have caused concern in Kiev that Moscow might send troops to eastern Ukraine, acting on a vote in Russian parliament allowing him to use the armed forces if compatriots are deemed in need of protection in Ukraine.'
While reacting to accusations of 'fraud' in the refferundum process, Putin aptly pointed out that 'In history, no other annexation has been without firing a single shot'. Although it is not entirely correct, in both regards. Woefully, Hitler had annexed Austria with just the display of military prowess and diplomatic charisma.So had Great Britain and other imperial powers."I have conquered the West without firing a single shot" Henry Willard said, after gaining monopoly of Pacific Railroad, stressing that weapons though paramount; aint a necessity in conquest. History is prime evidence that suggests that trade and culture influenced empire creation.Give me two generations, and I will take a country without firing a single shot." Vladmir Lenin, Communist leader of the Russian Revolution had boasted on similar lines.
Note :- An interesting analysis of Crimea through Game Theory by NYT http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/business/crimea-through-a-game-theory-lens.html?_r=1
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